Real estate consultant Michael Geller offers a sobering forecast for British Columbia's housing market in 2026, anticipating a continuation of the current slowdown. He highlights a significant drop in home sales and new housing starts, attributing the downturn to factors like declining rents, discouraging government policies for investors, and high construction costs. Geller also advocates for innovative housing solutions to address affordability and changing demographics.
Key Takeaways
- The Lower Mainland is projected to experience its lowest number of home sales this century in 2025, with 2026 expected to mirror this trend.
- New condominium launches have significantly decreased, with many projects put on hold or converted to rentals.
- Investor activity is minimal due to declining rents and unfavorable government policies.
- Thousands of new rental units are expected to be completed, potentially lowering rents but impacting developers.
- High municipal fees, interest rates, and construction costs are hindering new project viability.
Market Challenges and Forecast
Michael Geller's analysis suggests that the B.C. real estate market is facing a prolonged period of reduced activity. Initial optimistic predictions for 2025 by the B.C. Real Estate Association were revised downwards significantly, largely due to external economic factors. The market is characterized by a substantial surplus of unsold condominiums and a lack of investor confidence, leading to a projected continuation of low sales volumes into 2026.
Innovative Housing Solutions
Geller emphasizes the need for innovative housing models to combat the current malaise. He advocates for the increased development of "fee-simple" townhouses and "semi-detached" homes, which offer individual ownership unlike strata-titled properties. These are seen as attractive alternatives, especially with the provincial government's push for small-scale, multi-unit housing. Furthermore, Geller champions the adoption of factory-built modular housing for its potential benefits in quality, speed, and cost-effectiveness.
Addressing Family Housing Needs
Recognizing the link between housing affordability and declining fertility rates, Geller proposes the wider implementation of "lock-off suites" in apartment buildings. These suites, which can serve as mortgage helpers or extra bedrooms, have proven popular in communities like SFU's UniverCity. He believes this design can make family-friendly housing more accessible and allow more households to afford larger living spaces, ultimately supporting family growth.
