After experiencing its weakest year for home sales in over a decade, British Columbia's housing market is showing signs of a potential rebound in 2026. While most of the province is expected to return to average sales activity, Metro Vancouver may see a slower recovery.
Key Takeaways
- BC Real Estate Association forecasts a modest rebound for the provincial housing market in 2026.
- Metro Vancouver's market is expected to recover more slowly than the rest of the province.
- Stable mortgage rates and pent-up demand are contributing factors to the anticipated recovery.
- Buyers currently hold an advantage due to increased inventory and selection.
Provincial Outlook
According to Brendon Ogmundson, Chief Economist at the BC Real Estate Association (BCREA), most of British Columbia is anticipated to have an "average year" in terms of housing sales activity in 2026. This marks a significant improvement from the previous year, which Ogmundson described as the worst for sales in 25 years.
Metro Vancouver's Slower Pace
The outlook for Metro Vancouver, however, differs slightly. The BCREA's latest report indicates that while sales will increase and approach a 10-year average by the end of 2026, it will likely still be a below-average year for the region. Ogmundson noted that the recovery is not expected to be rapid.
Expert Consensus and Market Dynamics
Other economists echo the sentiment of a market bounce-back, attributing it to stable mortgage rates and pent-up demand. Brian Yu, chief economist for Central 1, projects a five to 10 percent increase in home sales. However, he cautions that this level is still considered low, and home prices are likely to remain relatively flat due to excess inventory.
Buyer and Seller Advice
Local realtor Adil Dinani advises that the current market conditions, with the highest inventory in nearly two decades, give buyers the upper hand. Buyers have more time, selection, and negotiating power. For sellers, Dinani stresses the importance of aligning with market data and working with an agent who provides realistic advice.
Future Prospects and Uncertainties
The BCREA suggests that a modest rebound in 2026 could pave the way for even more activity in 2027. Nevertheless, forecasts remain subject to change, and Ogmundson points out that various risks on the horizon could impact the projected recovery path.
